TEN DAYS AND COUNTING

I’m old enough to remember when politics was fun. We could argue and still be civil, talk to conservatives who did not spit and get red in the face when contradicted. This year the Washington Post and LA Times have actually refused editorially to endorse a presidential candidate -- the Post, evidently, because owner Jeff Bezos is so afraid of possible retribution by Donald Trump. The major paper front pages have temporized painfully to appear ‘balanced’ and the anger level, fueled primarily by Trump’s absurd posturing, is through the roof. This is the first year that I’ve positively cocooned mentally for the whole bizarre election season. In less than two weeks I’ll come out of hibernation either into a world of absolute turmoil or the comfort of a Harris-Waltz pending administration which, although unlikely to accomplish much with a Congress probably again paralyzed into inaction, is unlikely to presage the destruction of society as we know it.

I recently had the pleasure of briefly talking politics in Athens, Greece, with a very bright local who described himself as “progressive” rather than “liberal”, but definitely was in the European Social Democrat mold. I asked him what intelligent Greeks were saying about the possibility of a Trump presidency and not surprisingly learned they’re very very frightened of what Trump will enable Tovarisch Putin to do. Many Greeks remember (or have been taught) about the civil war which followed World War II and involved a Communist uprising and the fear that Russia would assert control and instead produced a military dictatorship in Greece for decades. An unleashed Putin who proudly advertises his intent to Make Russia Greater Again already strikes terror in the hearts of millions of Ukrainians, eastern Europeans and even further west. Add to this mix the millions of Japanese, South Koreans and Taiwanese who are rightfully fearful and it’s safe to say more people fear a Trump return than are sanguine about it.

A digressive note about Taiwan, if I may be permitted because I feel it deserves more attention that it has been getting lately with the focus on Ukraine, yet the entire future of south and east Asia is in the balance. Taiwan with a population of twenty-four million is one of the most densely populated areas in the world and considered the world’s semiconductor capital and thus vital to the U.S. and global electronics economy. The prehistory inhabitants of Taiwan were Austronesian and not Chinese, although they may have migrated through lands which are now geographically part of China. Taiwanese (still spoken primarily by older residents, but now again being taught in the schools) is a dialect of Chinese different from Mandarin, the official language of mainland China but comprehensible to Mandarin speakers (unlike Cantonese). The claim that Taiwan might have been part of the Chinese nation doesn’t really begin until 1683 when it was conquered but generally ignored with minimal contact during the Qing dynasty which actually offered initially to sell the island back to Portugal which had owned Taiwan for 38 years until 1662. Chinese rule was so light it could hardly be a basis for now claiming Taiwan historically intrinsically Chinese, any more than we could claim American Samoa or Guam are essential parts of the United States. When China lost the Sino-Japanese war in 1895 Taiwan was ceded to Japan “in perpetuity”; it is important to note that the residents had other ideas and declared a short-lived independent republic of Formosa which was conquered by overwhelming Japanese force but telling evidence that Taiwanese people did not consider themselves part of China. Formosa was then a Japanese colony until 1945. Interestingly, during that period while the Nationalists and Communists were contending for rule of mainland China, both Mao and Chiang Kai-shek were said to have supported independence for Taiwan -- from Japan, obviously -- rather than integration into China. The idea that Taiwan might be an integral part of the Chinese nation really doesn’t take root until 1949 when the Nationalists were defeated on the mainland and fled en masse to Taiwan under Chiang, but constituting a small minority of the Taiwan population. At that point both Mao and Chiang Kai-shek decided that Taiwan was part of China -- Chiang’s motivation being that he delusionally believed he would retake mainland China from his new perch in Taiwan but without the concurrence of the vast majority of Taiwan residents. American interest in Formosan independence begins with Dwight Eisenhower’s warning to China to keep away from the tiny offshore islands of Quemoy and Matsu in the 1950s as part of his Communist China containment policy. Thus the issue of Taiwan is even more vexed than the Middle East or Ukraine. And this is the history upon which Xi Jinping bases his authority to incorporate Taiwan into the PRC body by force, opposed by over 75% of Taiwanese!

It is easy to grasp how this issue is of urgent concern to Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, as well as other regional nations. I am far from expert in south Asia matters, but I ask you to indulge this detour to show how critical the Taiwan question is and how important thoughtful and extremely careful diplomacy will be to avert a huge pan-Asian catastrophe in the very near future. Does anyone, anyone at all believe these are capabilities likely to be found under a Trump II regime when one can easily imagine a quick deal to keep Elon Musk happy and inexpensive Chinese electric vehicles out of the U.S. in exchange for an American willingness to look the other way when China invades Taiwan.

And now back to our regularly scheduled program.

My point is that the choice of government we will make in ten days is possibly the most consequential, not just domestically but world wide, in almost 100 years. In 1939 a Gallup poll found 42 percent of Americans opposed to selling airplanes and other war materials to England and France to oppose Nazi Germany! Arguably, at least to this liberal mind, next week’s choice will be just as critical to world affairs as the 1940 election -- only this time there’s a better than even chance we’ll end up on the wrong side of history.

The polls are all over the map and shifting daily but slowly sliding Trumpian. And there’s always the phenomenon that many people have historically concealed from pollsters extreme conservative views or sexist inability to vote for a woman or racist opposition to minorities. (Remember what came to be called the Bradley effect, Bradley vs. Deukmejian in 1982 where Bradley had a clear lead in the polls?) Only the returns on November 5 will tell us how well the many current algorithms used by pollsters have adjusted for these and innumerable other variables.

Now it’s time to play the political guessing game, and I invite all of you to chime in with your predictions as well if you dare. Herewith my guesses: Harris wins the popular vote (an easy call) but Trump the Electoral College; Republicans take the Senate by 52-48, maybe 53-47 and Dems stay super close and maybe even control the House. And here are a few guesses going into 2025: Donald’s first acts will be to dismiss the federal cases pending against him and fire the special prosecutor, quickly followed by pardoning all the January 6th insurrectionists. The he will declare that Ukraine isn’t our war and veto any further support -- his magic elixir for ending the war immediately. Will he actually sic his Attorney General and prosecutors on his political enemies? Better than even chance he will, or at least that some over-zealous local U.S. Attorneys he appoints will issue arrest warrants for some prominent Democrats next year. Will the Donald actually round up millions of Hispanic U.S. residents and put them in concentration camps near the border? Probably not doable, but expect a smaller show-boat production. Will we see more violence against immigrant and minority populations, by both deranged MAGA-types and law enforcement as well? Definitely. Will he impose huge tariffs not only on Chinese products but European allies as well? Perhaps initially just to flex his economically ignorant muscle, then immediately declare victory and back off fairly quickly. Will Trump continue to decline cognitively, even more rapidly? I think that’s a given, making the choice of a Trump-selected White House Chief of Staff the most important and powerful job in the country, since he (and definitely a “he”) will be the person actually running the country by 2026 or 2027 as we will see less and less of the Donald in public. Could he actually appoint one of his sons as his Chief of Staff and de facto czar? Perhaps, since the anti-nepotism statute doesn’t apply to White House political appointments, but that would mean Eric or Don Jr. just might have to suspend temporarily their full-time efforts using the Trump cachet to gather yet more loot.

So let’s hear from you, dear readers, with your comments shared for all to see, and I obviously hope sincerely you prove me very very wrong on every one of these predictions -- except for the Dems in the House.

Arne Werchick, after fifty years as a litigation attorney, pro tem judge, law writer and lecturer, former Presiding Arbitrator of the State Bar of California, and past president of the California Trial Lawyers Association, moved to Hawaii and lives with his wife Ruth and their rescue dog Topaz.  He can be contacted at liberalmind@werchick.com.