Is the election already over?

The latest polls this week show Donald Trump carrying almost all the battleground states. Anti-Israel anti-Biden protests continue in force on college campuses, dominating the daily news cycle; evidently this year’s crop of college students has decided Trump, who has promised ever more big bombs for Israel and supported his friend Bibi  Netanyahu’s indiscriminate anti-two state policy, will in some magic kingdom be better for Palestine. Has Bibi’s ruthless pursuit of power -- and staying out of prison -- nailed down a victory for his buddy DTrump?

Should we be surprised that the front runner this month promised a quid pro quo of virtually unlimited petroleum resources to the oil industry if they’ll pay his $1,000,000,000 (yes, a billion dollar) pre-election bribe and no one seems to care? If Stormy Daniels and daily pictures of a tired, sleepy, bitter grumpy-Trumpy old man can’t move the needle, can anything? Is a deranged Kennedy -- and I do believe that brain worm must have eaten a lot more than they’re saying -- going to help bring about the end of days in America?

So I ask: Is the election over?  Are we doomed to rule by MAGA for the next four years (or -- maybe -- forever)?  Will there even be another election in 2028?

A lot depends on whether this will play out like 1948 (the famous headline “DEWEY WINS”) or more like 1936 (poor Alf Landon never stood a chance from the get-go).  Will Trump cruise through the even more gerrymandered Electoral College, perhaps perhaps still with the much smaller number of popular votes, or will the public rise up with an election surprise like Harry Truman in ‘48.  Would that I could believe that, but polling is a lot more sophisticated in 2024 than it was in 1948, and at this moment it sure doesn’t look promising for the liberal cause at the top-- or in the Senate or in the House for that matter.

Unfortunately, as most of my chat buddies agree, Democratic Party messaging is not scoring well.  The economy is cruising along.  Unemployment is at record lows and -- surprisingly for the doomsayers -- without rampant inflation.  We’re at peace -- OK, maybe involved in proxy wars, but no American troops fighting and dying.  We may even be moving slowly but inexorably toward a healthier non-petrochemical environment. More Americans than ever have health insurance. Trump seems more out of control than ever. And yet the political balance isn’t moving much.  

If recent polling is accurate, one of the few constituencies remaining fairly solidly in the Democratic camp is LGBTQ+, since the strongest Dem issue in 2024 is probably reproductive freedom rights.  The black and brown vote is slipping away, and the labor vote which should be solidly behind Joe Biden based upon his long history of pro-union advocacy is muddled.  

Political chatter also has it that the Republican Party as we knew it is dead dead dead, replaced by the Trump-MAGA party, leaving moderate Republicans with no place to go. A lot of prominent Republican writers and speakers have publicly condemned Donald Trump and MAGA politics, but sadly say publicly they will still vote Republican this fall. Bill Barr, Trump’s Attorney General, has suggested that the Donald is deranged yet still intends to vote for him. Just how far will these self-pitying non-Trumpers go to hold power?

No longer does the Republican party champion free trade and international alliances like NATO. They don’t even publish a party platform! It isn’t fiscally prudent by any means. It has no respect for the American electoral process. Even evangelicals no longer hew to their faith.  Some claim Mr. T was sent by god to dispatch the devil but it’s quite a reach to believe Jesus would have kept even twelve disciples if he was a foul-mouthed serial sex abuser, chronic liar, mocked the handicapped, broke all his promises, never honored his debts, and never never forgave those who trespassed against him -- and, on top of all that, insisted on turning wine into water.

The more cynical view believes that Republican leadership -- think Mitch McConnell types -- are simply and brazenly responding to the demographic shift taking place in the United States. By 2045 it is projected this will be a majority non-white nation, and I believe that terrifies white rock-ribbed right wingers. By then Texas and Arizona may become reliably Democratic, perhaps even Ohio and Georgia. They’re desperately doing everything then can to lock in power, from gerrymandering every possible state to loading up the courts at every level to electing bizarre right-wing legislators and governors in as many states as possible and passing extreme anti-woke legislation as quickly as they can. They’ve nominated candidates who believe in witchcraft, want to jail or even execute doctors who perform therapeutic abortions, believe science is an evil plot, hold that voting machines and electronic scanners and counters are a Democrat plot. They’ve inflicted upon us a Supreme Court which worships at the temple of the white male founders who gave us the Electoral College and the three-fifths solution (reread U.S. Constitution, Article I, section 2, clause 3) . . . and who yet may repeal popular and established Supreme Court decisions legalizing gay marriage and even contraception (yes, that’s Clarence Thomas again).   

I understand the conservative impulse to want a conservative government; sometimes you make mental compromises about the top of your ticket to get a government you honestly believe is more suitable for your needs or purposes. As an avowed liberal I almost invariably vote Democratic not just because of -- and on occasion in spite of -- the head of the ticket but in consideration of the immense power s/he wields appointing hundreds of judges, cabinet officials, diplomats and the list goes on.  But there must be limits! I know for certain, given the choice I’d always opt for an anodyne predictable stable administration of either party and would never knowingly support a movement which could endanger if not end democracy in this country particularly if it was headed by a dangerous demagogue who promises to be a dictator “only on day one.”

But it’s also starting to look as though the Democratic Party could also become moribund.  If we should lose not only the presidency but also the Senate and House in 2024, it’s hard to see a quick revival in Democratic fortunes.  The Supreme Court has deeply eroded the old doctrine of one-man-one-vote and upheld the right of states to draw electoral maps that firmly and perhaps permanently entrench very conservative legislative majorities.  If we lose Wisconsin and Nevada and Arizona this November, we might never get them back.  

At the moment I’m no longer the happy liberal optimist that I used to be.  This all boils down to 2024 being a watershed year for the future of American politics.  I’m not sure the American public is up to the challenge of working this out properly and may vote more impulsively than thoughtfully -- thanks in no small part to a lack of intellectual leadership coming from the national Democratic Party and scattered messaging from the Biden campaign thus far. Having RFK Jr. in the mix does not bode well. Maybe Taylor Swift will save us. But I fear it is the price of corn flakes that may doom us: up 16% in past couple of years, while W.K. Kellogg Company in 2023 reported net income went from a loss of $25 million to a profit of $110 million, representing a 540% increase! And that seems to be typical: American corporations are enjoying record profits, and American consumers are feeling pinched. That’s the traditional recipe for unelecting the incumbent in our political system.

I think liberals are overdue to unify behind a new approach and turn on its head the Lee Atwater southern strategy which secured victories for Nixon and Reagan and develop a new blueprint which incorporates a laser focus on elections from the precinct level upwards, particularly in swing states, rather than the top of the ticket downwards, with the goal of re-balancing state governments which we never should have lost . We can and will always be a fractious bunch, but in future we must modify our approach to look for a way to coalesce behind a strong candidate earlier in the process so long as the other team worships at the temple of a single overlord. And we must not let our left-wing fringe tail wag the liberal dog: it is not illiberal to remind ourselves that perfect is the enemy of the good. We can be the champions of liberal rights, support gun control, protect reproductive freedom, and still hold Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Arizona, and eventually win back Ohio and even Texas and Florida.

Obviously much can happen between now and November, and there is a narrow path for hope but I’m convinced it involves some significant leadership shifts in the Democratic party. And this sadly may not be our year -- or decade.

Once again I hope I’ve provoked a little liberal conversation; please comment freely and perhaps invite a friend or two to join us if you’d like to help expand our small circle. And yes, I remember my teaser for this issue was that it would address the Second Amendment, and that’s still good to go, but I thought this issue more pressing: but please stay tuned.

Arne Werchick, after fifty years as a litigation attorney, pro tem judge, law writer and lecturer, former Presiding Arbitrator of the State Bar of California, and past president of the California Trial Lawyers Association, moved to Hawaii and lives with his wife Ruth and their rescue dog Topaz.  He can be contacted at liberalmind@werchick.com.